October 2022 Manufacturing Industry Outlook Survey | So Good News

October 2022 Manufacturing Industry Outlook Survey

Note: Survey responses were collected from October 10th to October 17th.

According to companies responding in October, regional manufacturing activity declined overall this month. Manufacturing Industry Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative, while the export index was lower but little changed in positive readings. Firms continue to report higher employment on balance, and both price indices point to an overall increase in prices. The survey’s future general activity index suggests that surveyed companies expect an overall decline over the next six months.

Current indicators remain weak.

The spread index for current general activity is up 1 point but remains negative at -8.7 this month (see Table 1). It was the index’s fourth negative reading in the past five months. Nearly 24 percent of companies reported a decrease in general activity this month, while 15 percent reported an increase. The majority of companies (55 percent) reported no change. The index for new orders rose 2 points to -15.9, while the current exports index was basically unchanged at 8.6 in October. It was its lowest reading since May 2020.

Companies report job growth in moderation. The employment index rose to 28.5 from 12.0 this month, offsetting its decline last month. Just over 29 percent of firms reported an increase in employment (down from 15 percent last month), and 1 percent (down from 3 percent); 63 percent reported stable employment levels (down from 83 percent). The average workweek index returned to positive territory, rising 14 points to 10.4.

Companies continue to report price increases.

Indices for prices paid and prices received rose slightly this month after a steady decline over the summer. The paid price index rose 7 points to 36.3, which fell 55 points between April and September of this year (see Table 2). The percentage of firms reporting an increase in import prices (46 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting (10 percent). 43 percent of companies reported no change. The current received prices rose by 1 index point to 30.8. Almost 41 percent of companies reported that the prices they received for their own products increased this month. 10 percent reported a decrease and 44 percent reported no change.

Companies expect higher capital expenditures next year.

For this month’s special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different types of capital expenditures in the coming year. Although total capital expenditure is expected to increase rather than reduce total expenditure (from 37 per cent to 24 per cent). The share of companies expecting to reduce spending exceeded the share of companies expecting to increase spending in four of the six categories. , the structure computer and related hardware and others).

Futures indicators are deteriorating.

The spread index for future general activity fell from -3.9 to -14.9, its fifth negative reading (see Table 1). The share of companies predicting a decline in activity over the next six months (37 percent) outnumbers the share expected to increase (22 percent). Roughly a third of companies expect no change. The index of new future orders fell 23 points to -16.7; Its fourth negative reading was in the past five months. The futures export index fell 16 points but remained positive at 4.7. Firms continued to expect total employment to increase over the next six months, but the future employment index fell from 10 points to 12.2. The future capital expenditure index was essentially unchanged at 4.4.

Summary

Feedback for October Manufacturing Industry Outlook Survey We suggest that overall regional manufacturing conditions continue to decline this month. The indices for current activity and new orders remained negative, while the export index was stable but low. Firms continue to point to an overall increase in employment, and current price indices continue to point to rising prices on balance sheet. The survey’s broad indicators suggest that all industries are expected to contract in the next six months.

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